Morning edition · Friday, 23 October 2026
A comment period for capital
Washington published the rulebook for American money going into Chinese, Russian, Iranian, Cuban and North Korean technology. It is not a ban on everything. It is a form, a list and a deadline, which is how serious policy usually arrives.
On Thursday the US Treasury published a notice of proposed rulemaking for its Outbound Investment Security Program1. It turns the COINS Act, passed with the 2026 defence authorisation, into regulations1. The idea is narrow. It is not about trade in goods. It is about American capital, and the know-how that travels with it, flowing into technologies that could help a rival’s military, surveillance or cyber capabilities1.
What it does. US persons would have to notify Treasury of some investments and would be barred from others1. Five countries are covered: China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Russia2. Congress named five sectors: semiconductors and microelectronics, AI systems, quantum, high-performance computing and hypersonics. Treasury has added a sixth, biotechnology1. In AI, covered investments in those countries would be banned outright2. Treasury’s reason is candid: after two years of rapid progress, it doubts anyone can reliably “distinguish the most advanced models”2.
What it does not do. It does not ban all investment in those countries2. Investments in publicly traded companies are excepted, as are deals worth less than $50,000. Investors can also ask for exemptions in the US national interest2. Licensing deals by US drugmakers with China are not included, a Treasury official said, which meets a key request from the industry2. One name has left the list: Venezuela. Treasury says Maduro’s government “no longer exists”2.
Why it matters to you. If your pension fund, or a fund you hold, invests in private Chinese tech, the change shows up as compliance work long before anything is sold. Investors must make a “reasonable and diligent inquiry” before a deal, and the rule sets penalties for violations1. Assistant Secretary Chris Pilkerton put it this way: “It’s not just about the money. It’s about the network, the supply chain”2. Nothing here is advice.
The dull part, which is the good part. Comments are open until 7 December2. Only the final rule will set an effective date1. That is slower than a tweet and much harder to reverse. In a year of waivers announced from podiums, a rule with a docket, a deadline and a definitions section counts as stability.
What to watch
- The comment deadline of 7 December, and who files: chipmakers, venture funds and drugmakers will each want different lines moved2.
- The technical parameters for 'super intelligence systems', the NPRM's own phrase, which decide what counts as a banned AI investment1.
- The final rule, which Treasury says will come later and will set the effective date1.
Sanctions make headlines. Notification forms make habits.
Sources
- Treasury Issues Proposed Rule to Implement Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act — U.S. Department of the Treasury, 22 Oct 2026.
- US Treasury drops Venezuela from countries facing outbound US investment restrictions — Reuters via Investing.com, 22 Oct 2026, 17:04.
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