Sixty days was the honest clause

On 17 June President Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding that declared the removal of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and committed Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only”¹. The future administration of the strait was left to Iran, in consultation with Oman and other Gulf states¹.

The screen believed it. On the EIA spot series Brent was $80.33 on the day of signing and $68.53 on 2 July, its lowest since early February³. That was a pre-war price for a strait that was not running at pre-war volumes. Under the agreement, traffic rose to an average of about 20 vessels a day: better than five, still only a fifth of normal².

The water did not. On 25 June a ship was attacked in Omani waters, prompting US airstrikes; there were further attacks on ships off Oman on 7 and 8 July¹. On 14 July the United States resumed its blockade, and traffic fell back to about five vessels a day². Brent spot was $83.69 that day and $105.32 by 23 July³.

The honest clause. Read in hindsight, the memorandum told you its own limits. “Best efforts” is not a guarantee. “With no charge” implies that a charge was on the table. “For 60 days only” is a deadline, and deadlines in a corridor dispute are where the next negotiation starts, not where the last one ends. None of that required foresight; it required reading the clause with the number in it.

What it meant for you. A business that locked in fuel or freight at the early-July low would have done well for a fortnight. One that treated the low as the new normal would have had a hard August. The constructive habit is simple and unglamorous: when a price moves on a signature, check the traffic data before you check your budget. Ships are slower than headlines, and more honest.