The mood moves in a fortnight, the till in a season

The feeling. GfK’s consumer confidence index for Britain fell eleven points to −24 in October, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020¹. Outside the pandemic, the last fall on that scale followed the 2016 Brexit vote¹. “The speed of this deterioration is alarming,” said Neil Bellamy of GfK¹. The survey asked 2,003 adults between 1 and 14 October¹.

The behaviour. The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September, after a 0.7% rise in August; over the third quarter they still rose 0.7%². Fuel volumes rose on the month “despite fuel prices continuing to rise”². People said they felt much worse; they spent a little less.

Why that is normal. Surveys capture expectations, and expectations move as fast as the evening news. Spending is made of routines: the weekly shop, the commute, the tank that has to be filled whatever the price. Routines change slowly and partly. That is why a confidence survey is a warning light, not a verdict, and why the honest answer to “are people cutting back?” is usually “a little, and later”.

The kind word. On Thursday, after chip stocks fell almost 7%, the strategist Ed Yardeni called the AI trade a “bubble”, and then added: “Taking some air out of the AI bubble is a good thing. I don’t think it’s going to burst and create problems for the economy”³. Words travel in families. “Bubble” usually comes with “burst” and “panic”. Here it came with “maintenance”. You do not have to agree with him to notice which framing is easier to think with.

For you. When the news says everyone feels poorer, look at your own bank statement before you change your plans. It is the one series you can read every day, and it is usually calmer than the headline. Nothing here is advice.