Sunday long-read · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Boelo blew the price down; the Rhine barely rose
The season's second named storm brought 85 mph gusts to Britain and near-free power to Germany. The Rhine at Kaub touched the 2018 low line for a day, then slipped back under it. One weather system, three ledgers.
The storm. Boelo, the second named storm of the season, reached Britain on Saturday after Austen on Friday1,2. The BBC reported gusts of 85 mph overnight at Machrihanish in western Scotland and at The Needles off the Isle of Wight1. Amber wind warnings covered Scotland, the far north of England and parts of Northern Ireland into Sunday1. Trains and ferries were cancelled in Scotland, and dozens of flood warnings and alerts were in place1. As of 06:30 on Sunday, National Grid said 10,860 properties still had no electricity; on Saturday it said more than 124,000 had been reconnected since the storms began1.
The power price. The same weather system blew across the North Sea. Germany’s onshore wind turbines generated 1,009,174 megawatt hours on Saturday, roughly four times Wednesday’s 242,2814. The day-ahead electricity price fell to €30.12 for Saturday and €13.12 for Sunday, from €211.94 on Wednesday4. Our Ordinary Ledger has the arithmetic, and why it will not reach your bill this month.
The river. The Rhine at Kaub, the Middle Rhine gauge that barge operators watch, spent four weeks below 25 centimetres, the lowest daily reading of the 2010–2020 reference period, set on 22 October 20183. On Friday its daily mean of 15-minute readings reached 25.9 cm, just above that line; on Saturday it was back to 23.8 cm3. By 08:45 on Sunday it read 27 cm3. Desk arithmetic: the daily means are averages of the published 15-minute values.
Line chart of the Rhine water level at the Kaub gauge from 25 September to 24 October 2026, as daily means of 15-minute readings in centimetres above the gauge zero, against a flat line at 25 cm, the lowest daily reading of the 2010–2020 reference period, set on 22 October 2018. The daily mean stays below that line for four weeks, falling below zero on several days, with the lowest mean of −4.8 cm on 1 October. It recovers to 19.7 cm on 13 October, dips to 8.8 cm on 18 October and climbs to 19.1 cm on 22 October. On Friday 23 October the daily mean reaches 25.9 cm, just above the 2018 line, and on Saturday 24 October it slips back to 23.8 cm, just below it.
Source WSV / PEGELONLINE, Kaub (Rhein) water level, 15-minute raw values retrieved 25 Oct 2026 08:50 CET · Datenlizenz Deutschland Zero 2.0 · daily means: desk arithmetic. Wasserstraßen- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung des Bundes (WSV), PEGELONLINE. Datenlizenz Deutschland – Zero – Version 2.0.
Data (CSV) · SVG · PNG
Latest values as a table
| Date | Kaub, daily mean | Lowest daily reading 2010–2020 (25 cm, 22 Oct 2018) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 12.9 | 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | 19.2 | 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | 15.1 | 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | 19.1 | 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | 25.9 | 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | 23.8 | 25 |
Why the storm did not fill the river. Boelo’s warnings, for wind and for rain, were for Britain and Ireland1,2. The Rhine is fed from the Alps, the Black Forest and the hills along its course. A storm can make the news in Glasgow and leave the gauge in Kaub almost where it was. That is why this desk reads the gauge, not the weather map.
The constructive reading. Three ledgers, three honest numbers: homes reconnected in Britain, megawatt hours of wind in Germany, centimetres of water at Kaub. Each was published by a public body, for free, within hours. Weather cannot be managed. Its bills can be read in advance, and that is most of what preparation is.
What to watch
- The Met Office's warning for northern parts of the UK on Tuesday, from the next low.
- Kaub after the weekend's rain. A storm over the Atlantic coast is not the same as rain over the Alps and the Black Forest, which is what feeds the Rhine.
- Power restorations in Britain and Ireland: the count of homes still cut off is the honest measure of a storm.
A storm is a bill for some and a discount for others. The ledger is only fair if you read all three columns.
Sources
- Storm Boelo hits UK with gusts up to 85mph gusts as amber warnings hold — BBC News, 24 Oct 2026, updated 25 Oct.
- Warnings in place as Storm Boelo to impact UK — Met Office, 23 Oct 2026, updated 24 Oct 13:00.
- PEGELONLINE REST API: Kaub (Rhein), water level W, 15-minute raw values — Wasserstraßen- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung des Bundes (WSV), retrieved 25 Oct 2026, 08:50 CET.
- Day-ahead price DE-LU, daily (filter 4169); realised generation, wind onshore (filter 4067) — Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de, retrieved 25 Oct 2026, 08:52 CET.
Every figure in this piece traces to a source above or to the desk’s own arithmetic on those sources, marked as such. Quotations are short and attributed. Spot an error? Write to the desk; corrections are logged on the method page.
Commentary for information only. Not investment, legal, tax, medical or political advice. Not an offer or solicitation. Analysis may be incomplete or wrong. Charts show published public data, not a trading feed; binding numbers live with the institutions that publish them.