Podium vs Print: "going the wrong way" and a 6.5% wholesale year

The podium. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, did not reach for comfort on Friday. “We’ve been above 2% for almost six years,” he told CNBC, “and lately we’re not making any progress, and if anything, it’s going the wrong way”¹. He added that inflation was broad, reaching categories “not driven by oil prices and not driven by tariffs”¹.

The print. At 14:30 CET the Bureau of Labor Statistics published October producer prices. Final demand rose 0.3% on the month, a touch below the 0.4% consensus; core also rose 0.3%, in line¹. The annual rate rose to 6.5%, the highest since November 2022¹. Goods prices were up 10.2% on the year, intermediate processed goods 14.6%¹. FXStreet put core producer prices at 5.0% on the year, in line with expectations².

The gap. There is less of one than usual, and that is the story. The headline is a month that came in softer than forecast. The table underneath shows a year that is still getting harder: trucking freight prices up 3.9% in a single month, and a measure excluding food, energy and trade services up 0.5%¹. Goolsbee’s line reads the annual column, not the monthly one. CNBC reports that markets fully price a quarter-point Fed rise on 8–9 December, with a small chance of half a point¹.

For you. Producer prices are the invoices firms pay before you see a shelf tag. Desk arithmetic: if a year-on-year rate of 6.5% held, a $100 basket of producer goods and services would cost about $106.50 a year later. If you carry dollar debt or a floating-rate loan, it is the December strip, not Friday’s softer month, that sets your bill. Nothing here is investment advice.