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Morning edition · Thursday, 12 November 2026 · 08:30 CET

Ten ships in ten days, Brent at $91.62: the screen prices the talks, the strait still prices the war

Oil fell overnight on hopes for diplomacy while Hormuz kept its count; the institutions keep the ledger either way. Also: a bond market back from its holiday, Asia buying chips, the budget committee's €25 a month, flu season starting on schedule, and Delhi's smog by the numbers.

Morning 08:30 · Evening 17:30 · Sunday 10:00, Berlin time

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GEO-ECON · LEAD

Ten ships in ten days, Brent at $91.62: the screen prices the talks, the strait still prices the war

Oil fell again overnight on hopes for diplomacy in two wars. In the Strait of Hormuz, the attack count for November is running at about one ship a day. Both can be true, and the gap between them is where your heating bill lives.

Oil fell again in Asian trade on Thursday. Brent futures lost $1.14, or 1.2%, to $91.62 a barrel by 02:41 CET, and US West Texas Intermediate fell $1.04 to $85.49. The reason given on the trading desks was diplomacy in two wars at once: Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed a prisoner exchange in Abu Dhabi, and the Wall Street Journal reported that US Vice President JD Vance was considering in-person talks with a top Iranian security official, which the paper said remained preliminary. "Markets are falling on expectations that behind-the-scenes efforts are underway to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and that it is unlikely the Iran war will escalate ahead of the US-China summit next week," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa of Nissan Securities Investment.

That is the screen. Now the sea.

Geo-economics · 4 min · Read the piece →

Desk notes

End of edition · added

Before you close the tab

One thing you can do this week

Write down every medicine you take on one card: name, strength, how often, and what it is for, plus any allergy. Put it in your wallet next to your health insurance card and update it whenever a prescription changes. It takes ten minutes once. In a waiting room, a pharmacy or an emergency department, it answers the first question before anyone has to ask it twice.

A habit, not advice.

What went right

In 2024, Butterfly Conservation released 20 adult Wood Whites, a butterfly classified as endangered in Great Britain, at Fineshade Wood in Rockingham Forest near Corby 1. This year its volunteers and the public recorded 746 there, against 73 in 2025, a rise of 922% 1. The charity thinks a warm spring "may have turbo-charged larval growth" 1. Since 1992 the butterfly's distribution has shrunk by 76%, and it survives in only a dozen parts of its former range 1. "Only two years ago we were releasing butterflies here," said Jamie Wildman of the charity 1. The work was funded by Natural England's Species Recovery Programme 1. A ditch edge, a grant and hundreds of volunteer hours are not a headline until, one summer, they are.

The day in one sentence

A Thursday of budget numbers, flu notifications and price lists, which is to say a day when the useful news arrives in tables, and the tables are being kept.

In euros at home

Germany's Christmas tree growers expect a Nordmann fir, the country's favourite, to cost €25 to €33 per metre this season, against about €18 to €23 ten years ago, according to the Association for Natural Christmas Trees, quoted by the Tagesspiegel on 8 November 2. Blue spruce is put at €17 to €22 per metre and Norway spruce at €14 to €19 2. One grower near Potsdam charges €49.90 for a 1.75-metre premium Nordmann fir, up from €46 last year; another in Schleswig-Holstein says trees up to two metres keep last year's price, while larger ones rise by three to four euros 2. Desk arithmetic: a two-metre Nordmann fir comes to €50 to €66 at this year's range, against €36 to €46 at the range of ten years ago; the Potsdam premium tree is €3.90, or about 8.5%, dearer than last year.

Indicative retail ranges per metre from growers' associations, reported 8 Nov 2026; your price depends on region, quality, size and seller. Nothing here is advice.

Small words

Meterpreis (price per metre)

How Christmas trees are usually priced in Germany, by height rather than by the tree 2. It makes trees of different sizes comparable at a glance, but it is a range, not a rule, and sellers may add more for taller or premium trees 2. When you compare two stands, compare the price per metre at the same quality first, then the height you actually need for your ceiling.

Sources for this section

  1. Butterfly's 900% boom as larvae 'turbo-charged' — BBC News, 11 Nov 2026
  2. Die Tanne wird teurer: 2026 muss für den Weihnachtsbaum mehr gezahlt werden – fast überall — Tagesspiegel (Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten), 8 Nov 2026, 14:45 CET

Commentary for information only. Not investment, legal, tax, medical or political advice. "Desk arithmetic" is our own calculation from the cited figures.

Charts and data in this edition