Ordinary Ledger: E10 at €1.978, diesel at €2.217, and a price cap whose trigger has never been pulled

A litre of Super E10 cost €1.978 on the national average on Wednesday, ADAC says, about 6.3 cents less than a week earlier and the fifth day in a row under two euros¹. Diesel cost €2.217, down 4.3 cents on the week¹. Brent crude closed on Tuesday at around $91 a barrel, roughly $12 lower than a week before¹.

Two fuels, two speeds. Desk arithmetic: diesel now costs about 23.9 cents a litre more than E10. ADAC says lower crude prices are already clearly visible at the pump for E10, but less and more slowly for diesel, and that wholesale prices, the fuel tax cut and crude do not fully explain diesel’s high level even allowing for special factors¹. In its view there is “clearly room” for further cuts¹.

The cap that is not yet a cap. The fuel tax cut runs until the end of the year; a price cap was meant to follow from January². The economy ministry’s draft would let the government set a maximum price only if fuel in Germany rose for three weeks by five percentage points more than the EU average, a condition AFP reports has never been met, even since the Iran war began². “That is not what we agreed,” said Armand Zorn, deputy leader of the SPD parliamentary group, who wants a “real” cap in force before Christmas². The economy minister, Katherina Reiche, had opposed a cap from the start².

What it means at the pump. Desk arithmetic: on a 50-litre tank, this week’s fall is worth about €3.15 for E10 and €2.15 for diesel; the gap between the two fuels is about €11.95 a tank. ADAC’s practical tip is the same as ever: prices are lowest shortly before noon, jump at 12:00 and then fall slowly¹.

The calm view. Whether a cap helps depends on its design, and the argument about the design is happening in public, with the trigger written down for anyone to read. Meanwhile the price board on your route is a better guide than any announcement. Nothing here is investment advice.