€90 billion lent, €45 billion pledged, four countries out: Merz puts Ukraine on the EU's bill

Friedrich Merz has written to European Council President António Costa that a “collective commitment … without exception” to Ukraine’s funding is an “essential pre-requisite” for “discussing any further matters, particularly those with financial implications”, the Guardian reports from Brussels¹. In plain terms: Germany signals it will block the EU’s 2028–34 budget unless every member state contributes to Kyiv.

The ledger behind the letter. Last year the EU agreed to lend Ukraine €90bn, meant to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian costs for 2026 and 2027¹. Russia’s bombardment has since raised those costs. Zelenskyy has asked for €70bn to close a budget gap; the EU has endorsed that figure and pledged to find €45bn, with the UK and Canada among those expected to cover the rest¹. Desk arithmetic: that leaves €25bn for Ukraine’s other allies to find.

Who stays out. Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia opted out of the €90bn loan and have indicated they will stay out of the next round. Bulgaria has now joined them¹. “What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not give in to it,” Slovakia’s Robert Fico said in Bratislava, next to Czechia’s Andrej Babiš¹. Merz’s own complaint is that bilateral help is “carried mostly by only a few member states”¹.

The machinery. Berlin also wants decisions on funding Ukraine moved from unanimity to qualified-majority voting, so a single government cannot block them¹. Costa’s office confirmed it had received the letter. It said Ukraine would come up at the informal summit in Dublin this Friday and at a special budget summit on 26–27 November¹. Costa wants a budget deal by the end of the year¹.

The timing matters. The letter lands while Russia, Ukraine and the US are meeting in Abu Dhabi². Whatever is agreed there, someone will have to pay for Ukraine’s grid, its army and its schools next year.

For you: ignore the word “blackmail” and follow the three numbers: €90bn already lent, €45bn pledged and four governments out. EU budget fights almost always end in a late-night compromise. What matters is whether the compromise writes down who pays, not who shouted.