12:00, 14:30, then Thursday at 11:00: two documents decide the budget week

Today the five economists of the German Council of Economic Experts, chaired by Monika Schnitzer, hand their annual report to Chancellor Friedrich Merz at 12:00 CET and present it to the public at 14:30 CET². The council says the report covers the economy in 2026 and 2027, how to narrow the financing gaps and net borrowing in the federal budget, and how to revive weak productivity growth in German firms¹. Nothing in it is public yet; anyone quoting its numbers before 14:30 is guessing.

What the advisers said last time. In the spring the council forecast only 0.5% growth for this year, largely because of the Iran war; since then the economy has proved more resilient than expected, and AFP expects the forecast to be revised². In last year’s report the experts criticised the government for spending much of its special funds on “consumptive” outlays rather than investment². That criticism is the yardstick for today.

Why the timing is pointed. On Thursday the budget committee holds its clean-up session, the Bereinigungssitzung, which the Bundestag’s own information service expects to run “into the early hours of Friday”, with every departmental budget called up again and “numerous changes” still expected³. The budget accompanying act for 2027 is due for final committee discussion the same day³. As of Tuesday morning, the coalition had paused the committee’s clean-up draft while its leaders kept negotiating, with the electricity tax the central dispute⁴.

The longer number. Merkur, citing Reuters, ZDF and others, reports a planned €118.7 billion of new core borrowing next year, close to €204 billion including the special funds, and an uncovered financing need of around €115 billion for 2028 to 2030⁴. Desk arithmetic: the special funds add roughly €85 billion to next year’s core borrowing.

For you. Read the advisers’ report as a checklist and Thursday’s session as the receipt. The report cannot change a single line of the budget; the committee can. The dull machinery runs this week in the right order: advice first, arithmetic second, vote later in November. Nothing here is investment advice.