54.8 million ballots in, and none of them counted yet

By late Sunday, US Eastern time, 54,834,584 Americans had already voted in Tuesday’s midterms, by NBC News’s count: about 24 million by mail and 30.8 million in person¹. A further 60.7 million mail ballots had been requested or sent, a figure that includes every registered voter in states that post a ballot to everyone¹. Desk arithmetic: in-person early votes are about 56% of the total so far.

Not one of these ballots has been counted in the sense that matters to you. As the University of Florida’s Election Lab reminds readers of its tracker, party-registration statistics “are not actual votes”⁴. And no state allows results to be released until its polls close on Election Day, the Center for Election Innovation & Research notes². What differs is the preparation. At least 45 states and Washington, DC, allow or require envelope processing (checking signatures and IDs, sorting) before Election Day; at least 33 allow ballots to be scanned into tabulators early, without producing totals². Only three, Alaska, Alabama and Mississippi, do not permit scanning until polls close².

Pennsylvania is the slow lane by law, not by fault. Its counties may not open a mail ballot until 7 a.m. on Election Day, on the same day they run more than 9,000 polling places, and may not publish mail-ballot results until polls close at 8 p.m.³. Ballots must arrive by 8 p.m.; a postmark does not help, except for some military and overseas voters³. Wisconsin is similar: envelopes cannot be formally processed until the polls open².

So expect the familiar shape: early totals that move as mail ballots are added, in different orders in different states. That movement is the machinery doing its job, not a sign of anything amiss; Pennsylvania’s own officials say changes after election night “are not evidence” of rigging³. Media calls are projections on unofficial results³. For you, the useful habit is to ask of each state not “who is ahead?” but “what has been counted?”