Ordinary Ledger: one receipt, three different stories
On the morning the ECB meets, Germany's price index splits into lines that barely know each other: fuel up 36.8% in a year, food up 0.4%, the bill for heating and light down 1.9%.
Germany's inflation rate is a single number, and it is a useful one. In September Eurostat's harmonised index put it at 3.3%, up from 2.0% in February. But nobody pays an average. You pay a fuel bill, a supermarket bill and an energy bill, and this autumn those three lines are telling three different stories. On the day the European Central Bank meets, it is worth reading them one at a time.
**The pump.** Fuels for the car cost 36.8% more in September than a year earlier, the highest reading since at least the start of 2025. Before the war began in late February the same line was rising by 0.4% a year; by March it was up 19.8%. The ADAC's figures from Wednesday show where it stands now: a litre of Super E10 at €2.084 on the national average, diesel at €2.289, more than 20 cents apart. The two are moving in opposite directions. E10 fell 2.6 cents in a week while diesel rose 3.4 cents, with Brent at about $114 a barrel. The automobile club blames tight international diesel markets and the seasonal demand for heating oil, and reads the petrol move as a sign that there had been room for cuts.
