5,589,836 votes entered, and still no 61

Israel’s Central Elections Committee said on Thursday that the counting of the double envelopes, the ballots of soldiers, diplomats, patients and prisoners, had been completed, with final results to follow¹. By then results from 12,644 polling stations had been entered, containing 5,589,836 votes: 5,564,764 valid and 25,072 invalid¹. Desk arithmetic: fewer than one ballot in 220 was spoiled.

The seats did not move. With 97% counted, Haaretz reported Netanyahu’s bloc at 53, the Eisenkot-led bloc at 48 and the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel at 19, a record, according to the Guardian². Neither camp reaches the 61 needed for a majority on its own². The opposition faces a plain choice: an arrangement relying on the Arab parties, which Eisenkot’s bloc has ruled out, or a unity government with Netanyahu, which Eisenkot vowed never to join². The Joint List has offered tactical support to an Eisenkot minority government without joining it².

What you can actually hold on to is the timetable. The committee has asked the Shin Bet to look into alleged foreign interference and wants findings within a week, ahead of the 4 November deadline for certifying results². President Isaac Herzog said that once official results are in he will meet representatives of all political groups, and asked them to “keep an open mind”². The new Knesset is due to be sworn in on 10 November, and Eisenkot warned against using the interference allegations to delay it².

Each of those steps belongs to an institution, not a candidate: a committee that counts, a president who consults, a parliament that convenes on a fixed date. Coalition talk before 4 November is bargaining. The certified result is the only document that binds.