The exit polls gave way to the count, and the count is not finished

Late last night Channel 13’s exit poll had the two blocs tied on 51 seats each and Channel 12 had Netanyahu’s bloc ahead, 52 to 49². This morning’s numbers say something else again, and neither set is the result. With about 37.4% of votes counted at 04:49 CET, the Central Elections Committee’s partial tally gave Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc 57 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, the “change bloc” 47 and the Arab-led parties 16¹. An hour earlier, at 31.2% counted, the split was 59, 46 and 15¹. The committee stresses the figures are preliminary and may change¹.

By party, Likud leads on 28, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar has 21 and the Joint List 12¹. Together has 11, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beytenu eight each, and the Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, Shas and the Religious Zionist-Zehut list seven each¹. Ra’am is in with 3.81% of the vote, four seats; the threshold is 3.25%¹.

Desk arithmetic: 47 plus 16 is 63, so on these partial numbers the parties outside Netanyahu’s bloc add up to more than 61. But a sum is not a coalition. Whether those parties can agree to govern together is what the coming talks are for, and Netanyahu’s 57 is four short of 61^1,2.

Both camps spoke as if the night were over. “The old era is over,” Eisenkot told supporters; Netanyahu said “the right bloc has a majority”². Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999 and 7.1 points above 2022, and the committee says Arab turnout reached 80%¹. Two new lists, the Reservists-Economic Party (2.72%) and Amcha Yisrael (1.77%), are below the threshold so far¹, and Hendel is counting on the double-envelope ballots that include soldiers’ votes³.

What happens next is procedure, not rhetoric. Once the count is final, President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders and nominates the candidate he thinks most likely to form a government, who then has up to 42 days². Until a coalition is sworn in, Netanyahu’s cabinet stays on as caretaker². You can ignore every victory speech this week. Watch the committee’s tallies instead.