Ordinary Ledger: 25,900 unpaid endings

Allianz Trade, the credit insurer, said on Tuesday that it expects company insolvencies in Germany to rise 8% in 2026, to 25,900 cases, the highest in 13 years¹. In the spring it had expected a rise of 2%, or 4% if the conflict in the Middle East persisted¹. Its forecast for 2027 is no change, at the same high level, and only in 2028 a fall of 5%, to 24,600¹. Desk arithmetic: 25,900 a year is about 71 companies a day.

Where it lands. The sectors named are transport and logistics, construction, hospitality, and the car and machine-building industries¹. After a rise of 85% since 2021, case numbers are still 30% above their pre-pandemic level, though well below the peaks of the global financial crisis, the insurer says¹. In Germany, 239,000 jobs are directly at risk across 2026 and 2027, by its count; worldwide, about 2.7 million¹.

Why the bill arrives now. Allianz Trade’s list is unglamorous: a weak economy, high energy costs, a shortage of skilled workers, and interest rates that stay higher for longer¹. In Western Europe, it estimates, a rise of 100 basis points in bank lending rates would add between €6 billion and €10 billion in interest costs for companies¹. There is also a quieter cause: the number of active firms grew by about 10% between 2021 and 2025, and fewer than half of new European companies survive beyond five years¹. More starts mean, a few years later, more endings.

What you can do. An insolvency is the last line of a long ledger, and much of it is written by customers. If you run a small business, invoice promptly and chase the overdue ones early. If you are a customer of one, a craftsman, a café, a local printer, pay on the date the invoice says. A supplier who is paid on time can pay its own suppliers on time; that chain is most of what an economy is.

The constructive reading is in the same release: the insurer expects the number to stop rising next year and to fall in 2028¹. Insolvency law exists so that a failure can be orderly, with creditors counted rather than racing each other. The machinery is busier than anyone would like. It is still working. Nothing here is advice.