Satellites overhead, every time: what one firm says it found above 40 strikes

AURORAH Geosignal Intelligence, a private firm in Geneva, examined 40 missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq between 1 July and 19 October¹. In every case, it says, Russian government and military satellites were orbiting above the targets for days before and after. “What we found is a 100% match,” said its founder, Nawaf Obaid, a former adviser to Saudi officials¹.

The detail is specific. From July the firm saw 11 of Russia’s Cosmos 2600-series satellites concentrating on three sections of the East-West Pipeline, whose pumping stations were hit by drones from Iraq on 10 September¹. Around that strike and the Houthi attack on King Fahd Air Base in Taif a week later, which damaged an Italian Eurofighter in its hangar, it counted 50% more Russian satellites overhead in a 72-hour window than in July¹. It identified 72 Russian reconnaissance satellites among more than 11,000 spacecraft¹.

The limits are stated too, which is to the firm’s credit. AURORAH has not intercepted any transmission of intelligence to Iran or its allies; it has a pattern of positions and manoeuvres¹. Three officials, among them one Saudi and one senior Houthi, told AP that Iranian advisers in the field analysed and passed on Russian intelligence, along with Chinese capabilities¹. Saudi Arabia’s deputy minister for public diplomacy, Rayed Krimly, said Iran and the Houthis get intelligence from “elements in Russia and China, even commercial elements sometimes”¹. An orbital analyst at Leolabs said massing satellites is what you would expect for collection, and noted there is no regulator: “How would you stop anybody?”¹.

That last question is the useful one. Orbits are public, catalogued, and trackable by anyone with patience, which is how a small firm could build this case at all. You do not have to accept every inference to see the gain: what used to be hidden in the sky is now a dataset, and governments can be asked about it in plain terms. Riyadh says it is raising it with Moscow and Beijing¹. Watch for the reply.