Ordinary Ledger: hope for the country, caution for the wallet

Every month the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) and GfK ask about 2,000 people in Germany how they feel about money, on behalf of the European Commission, and publish the sum¹. This morning’s sum, the consumer climate for November, is −30.8 points, down 0.2 from −30.6¹. A year ago it stood at −22.5¹. The interviews were held from 1 to 12 October². Small move, low level. The interesting part is in the lines underneath.

The ledger. Desk table, all figures from NIM and schuhkurier^1,2:

• Economic expectations: 2.1 points, up from −3.4. The sixth rise in a row, and above zero for the first time since the Iran war began^1,2.
• Income expectations: −15.7, from −15.0^1,2.
• Willingness to buy: −11.9, from −10.8^1,2.
• Willingness to save: 17.2, down 4.3 points from 21.5^1,2.
• Price expectations: 1.0, from −0.4, back in positive territory².

Desk arithmetic: economic expectations now sit 17.8 points above income expectations. A month earlier the gap was 11.6. People think better of the country and no better of their own pay.

Why the two lines part company. Inflation rose to 3.3% in September because of fuel, the highest since December 2023, NIM notes¹. People who expect prices to rise and their pay not to keep up do not buy a sofa, whatever they think of GDP. In May, the first fuel rebate brought back about half of April’s slump in income expectations; the reintroduced rebate has produced no comparable rebound this time¹. “The hope for an economic upswing is there, but the willingness to buy has not yet followed suit,” said Rolf Bürkl, NIM’s head of consumer climate¹.

The constructive line. Saving is falling back from a high level, and NIM says that supports the overall index¹. A household that saves a little less has a little more to spend, once it stops fearing the next bill. Survey numbers are moods, not receipts, as NIM itself points out: actual spending depends on liquidity, necessity and prices¹. The receipts arrive later, in retail sales and VAT. For now the ledger reads: confidence borrowed from the future, caution paid in cash. Nothing here is advice.