Morning edition · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 08:30 CET
The referees meet in the same week as the invoices.
Oil eased on a flight to Tehran, not a ceasefire. The US ten-year closed Friday at 5.00% before three central banks and three hyperscalers report. A storm sold German power at €13 on Sunday, the Rhine cleared its 2018 low, and Brazil counted to 100%. Eleven desks, every number sourced.
Morning 08:30 · Evening 17:30 · Sunday 10:00, Berlin time
Oil eased on Monday morning because mediators flew to Tehran. The US ten-year yield closed Friday back at 5.00%. This week three central banks set the price of money and three hyperscalers show what they spent it on.
Monday began with a small relief and a long diary. Brent crude slipped about 1% to $115.48 a barrel in early Asian trade, after reports that Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday in an effort, coordinated with the United States, to calm the region. A later Reuters update had it 1.6% lower at $114.88. Last week Brent rose 6.2%, its highest weekly close since mid-2022, because Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia raised the fear for supply. Those attacks did not stop over the weekend; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones and ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and the south on Sunday. So the barrel came down a dollar or two on a flight plan, not on a ceasefire. You should price it that way too.
**The long rate is the referee.** The US ten-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.00%, according to the Treasury's own daily curve, after 4.96% on Thursday, the lowest close since 22 September. It peaked at 5.31% on 5 October and started the year at 4.19%. Reuters notes that Treasuries rallied last week before "running into renewed selling on Friday".
Qatar sent a delegation to Tehran on Sunday. Iran's envoy in Islamabad offered the strait for the blockade; a Revolutionary Guards outlet called a similar report 'lies and fantasy'. Brent believed the aeroplane.
Lula won Brazil's runoff with 51.79% after losing the first round, something no runner-up had done since democracy returned. Turnout did it. Flávio Bolsonaro says it is 'impossible to concede'.
German onshore wind passed 1,000 GWh on both weekend days, gas burned a sixth of what it did on Wednesday, and Sunday's power cleared at €13.12. The wind is dropping, and Monday's price has climbed back.
The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all decide this week, and all are expected to hold. The price of money is now set less by what they do than by what they write about December.
The German average for 100 litres is €40.79 dearer than three months ago. Brent fell overnight; the heating oil price barely moved. A 3,000-litre order now costs about €5,230.
A Korean newspaper says the memory maker is weighing a special dividend of about 16 trillion won, roughly $12 billion, from selling its Kioxia stake. The company says nothing is decided. Wednesday's results will say.
Congo's bulletin for 23 October counts 9,876 confirmed cases and 4,803 deaths. The seven-day average of new cases fell to 65.9 from 71.6; deaths rose to 38.1 a day from 31.6.
Saudi Arabia says it intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles, drones and a cruise missile on Sunday. The same day, Riyadh's main airport resumed operations, two weeks after the deadliest attack on the kingdom in over a decade.
After four weeks below the worst day of 2018, the Kaub gauge averaged 31.3 cm on Sunday and read 52 cm at 05:15 on Monday. The weekend storm's rain is reaching the river.
This week, when you next pass your heating, look at one number: the oil tank gauge, the gas meter or the thermostat setting. Write it down with the date. Do it again next Monday. Two readings a week apart tell you more about your own winter than any price headline in this edition.
A habit, not advice. Nothing here tells you what to buy, order or switch.
What went right
Germany's onshore wind turbines generated more than 1,000 gigawatt hours on both Saturday and Sunday, and Sunday's day-ahead power price averaged €13.12 per megawatt hour, against €211.94 for delivery on 21 October 1. The storm arrived and the grid was ready to use it.
The day in one sentence
Oil eased because mediators flew to Tehran, not because anything was signed; this week the central banks and the big tech companies show their paperwork, and the paperwork usually wins.
In euros at home
Heating oil costs €174.34 per 100 litres on Monday's German average for a 3,000-litre order, €3.70 more than a week ago and €40.79 more than three months ago 2. Desk arithmetic: a 3,000-litre delivery costs about €5,230, some €1,224 more than the same order three months ago.
Desk arithmetic on the cited average price. Local prices differ by region, quantity and supplier. Nothing here is advice.
Small words
Day-ahead price
The price of electricity for each hour of tomorrow, set in an auction the day before. Germany's daily average for Sunday 25 October was €13.12 per megawatt hour, and for Monday it is €116.57 1: the wind dropped, and tomorrow's auction noticed.
Commentary for information only. Not investment, legal, tax, medical or political advice. "Desk arithmetic" is our own calculation from the cited figures.
