Three committees, one pause, and the sentence after it

The ECB is widely expected to leave its deposit rate at 2.5% on Thursday, after raising it in June and September as the Iran war pushed up energy prices; most economists polled by Reuters expect a quarter-point rise in December². The Fed meets from Wednesday, and futures put the chance of an unchanged target range of 3.75% to 4.00% at about 90%⁴. The Bank of Japan decides this week as well⁴.

The decisions are not the news. Markets imply about an 80% chance of a Fed move in December, and “much the same” for the Bank of Japan and the ECB¹. Goldman Sachs analysts, quoted by Reuters, expect the Fed to “skip raising rates at its October meeting” and deliver a second rise in December¹. They name the risk plainly: oil futures above their forecasts¹.

So this week’s real output is text. The ECB’s statement, the Fed’s statement, the press conferences. Each will either confirm December or leave it open. The bond market will read every comma, and so, a little later, will your bank’s mortgage desk.

There is dull machinery around the drama too. Before the council meets, the ECB publishes its survey on companies’ access to finance today and the Bank Lending Survey on Tuesday³. Those two papers tell the council whether its June and September rises are already reaching borrowers. They are the committee’s homework, and they arrive on time. Nothing here is advice.