An energy ceasefire is measured in distillation units

On 11 October the US president announced an “energy ceasefire” between Moscow and Kyiv. Ukraine paused refinery strikes, then lifted the pause on 15 October, President Zelensky said, citing continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s grid¹. That same day a drone attack hit Russia’s Ryazan refinery, and one of its main crude distillation units, CDU-6, stopped, Reuters reported, citing industry sources¹.

The detail is in the unit numbers. CDU-6 had already been shut after a strike in September; the refinery’s three other primary units, CDU-1, CDU-3 and CDU-4, reportedly keep running¹. The plant was also hit on 6 September and 15 May, and repairs after May lasted until around mid-July¹. On 16 October, Zelensky said, Russia launched one of its largest attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, targeting more than 15 key facilities¹.

This matters beyond the front line because diesel is the tightest part of the oil market. Days earlier Washington had lifted sanctions so Russia could supply diesel to global markets², and a refinery under drone attack produces less of it, whatever is promised for export.

A second front runs through Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-led coalition said the Houthis attacked Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport 20 times in October, and Saudi officials say at least 19 people have been killed in recent attacks across the kingdom³. Keeping the night boring is now a job done on two seas and one long front, and it is done by crews, not by statements.