Friday had two stories, and they asked investors for opposite things.

The oil story. Brent crude futures reached $115.16 a barrel in London, the highest since 4 May, and stood at $114.99 by 13:00 GMT; US crude was at $101.27². Reuters had Brent on course for a 4.4% weekly rise, its third in a row, while WTI was on track for a small weekly fall². The reasons are listed in the copy, not in the charts: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, an oil spill off the UAE, and reports that Washington and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections^2,3.

The stock story. On Wall Street the Dow fell about 600 points in early trade, while the Nasdaq barely moved, a sign, the Wall Street Journal noted, that the AI rout of Thursday might be easing⁴. CNBC had the S&P 500 down 0.6% at the open and the Dow down 1.3%¹. Thursday’s selling had sent the Philadelphia semiconductor index down almost 7% and the Nasdaq down 2.6%, its worst day since June³.

The shelter. On Thursday investors ran to US government bonds, giving Treasuries their biggest rally in more than three years³. On Friday the ten-year yield edged up to 4.97%, still just under 5%¹. The VIX, the options market’s gauge of expected volatility, rose another 6% to 20.24¹. Almost a full quarter-point of Fed hikes for next year has been priced out this week³.

Elsewhere. Asia closed mixed. The Nikkei lost 0.34%, Korea’s Kospi gained 0.3%, and China’s CSI 300 rose 1.71% but still closed lower for the week for an eleventh straight time¹. Europe was 0.5% lower before New York opened³.

What to make of it. The two stories do not cancel out. Oil rose on a risk that may or may not arrive. Tech fell on a cost, the cost of borrowing to build data centres, that has already arrived. If you hold a broad fund, Friday reminded you why it holds both stocks and bonds: on Thursday one went down while the other went up. That is the boring design doing its job. Nothing here is advice.

Two British numbers arrived on Friday morning, both about households, and they did not agree.

The feeling. GfK’s consumer confidence index fell eleven points to −24 in October, below every forecast in a Reuters poll¹. It was the biggest month-on-month drop since April 2020, the first lockdown; outside the pandemic, the last fall on this scale came after the June 2016 Brexit vote¹. GfK said no single factor explained it, pointing to rising inflation, the war in the Middle East and the squeeze on budgets. “The speed of this deterioration is alarming,” said Neil Bellamy of GfK¹. The survey asked 2,003 adults between 1 and 14 October¹.

The behaviour. The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September, after a 0.7% rise in August². Over the third quarter they rose 0.7%². Fuel volumes rose on the month “despite fuel prices continuing to rise”, after a fall in August when retailers thought motorists were only partly filling their tanks². Clothing fell, which online retailers put down to a warm September, the joint-fourth warmest on record².

Why they differ. They cover different months, for a start: the ONS figures stop in September, the GfK survey ran in early October. But the gap is also a familiar one in behavioural research. People report their expectations quickly and strongly; they change their routines slowly and partly. A full tank is a habit; a gloomy answer to a pollster costs nothing.

What it does not mean. It does not mean the mood is wrong. Confidence surveys often lead spending. It means a single bad survey is a warning light, not a verdict. The ONS will publish October’s figures on 20 November². That is the month to watch.

For you. When the news tells you everyone feels poorer, check whether anyone is actually buying less. Your own spending is the one series you can read daily. Nothing here is advice.

The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy opened a dialogue with the mineral oil industry on Friday about the future of Germany’s refineries¹. Minister Katherina Reiche’s ministry will turn it into a strategy paper for the cabinet; the Länder, the IG BCE union and affected industries are to be brought in^1,2.

The inventory. The release starts with the stock. Germany has eleven refinery sites with a processing capacity of a little over 92 million tonnes of crude a year¹. They cover a large part of the fuel used on roads, in the air and at sea, and make feedstocks for plastics and medicines¹. Keeping that capacity is called “a strategic priority” of industrial policy¹.

The claim. The ministry argues that losing these refineries “cannot be compensated by imports” and would threaten chemical companies or push them abroad¹. It also says the plants must convert step by step from fossil to sustainable feedstocks, which needs “investments in the billions”, and that companies need to be able to plan long-term and assess risks reliably¹.

What is missing. The release does not say who pays for those billions, or what instruments the state might use. It announces a cross-ministry study on what a resilient energy system needs and how resilience can be anchored in planning, scenarios and administration¹. That is a sensible order: count, then study, then decide. It is also slow, at a time when a war in the Gulf is setting fuel prices week by week.

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The S&P Global flash composite PMI for the euro area fell to 51.9 in October from 53.1 in September, its lowest since June and below every forecast in a Reuters poll, which had expected 52.7¹. Above 50 still means growth. Services fell to 51.7 and manufacturing to 52.4³.

Where it weakened. France’s composite fell to 48.4 from 51.1, back into contraction, against 50.5 expected². Firms there tied a sharp fall in demand to political uncertainty, and business confidence hit its lowest since 2012 outside the pandemic¹. Germany kept growing, but more slowly, at 52.8 from 53.8². Hiring across the currency area almost stopped¹.

The price detail. This is the line for the European Central Bank. Input costs rose faster for a second month, driven by energy, fuel and transport¹. Yet firms raised their own selling prices more slowly than in September, which points to margins being squeezed rather than costs passed on¹. “There is still little evidence of second-round effects, which will be reassuring for the ECB,” said Harry Chambers of Capital Economics¹.

The good line. New export orders rose for a third consecutive month, after nearly four and a half years of declines¹. Chris Williamson of S&P Global said the reading is consistent with growth of about 0.3% a quarter, “still among some of the best performances seen over the past three years”³.

The committee. The ECB meets on 28–29 October with its deposit rate at 2.50%. A Reuters poll earlier this month expected a hold next week and a quarter-point rise in December, with inflation running nearly double the 2% target¹. Traders scaled back bets on further rises after the surveys². Across the Atlantic, a December Fed hike is no longer fully priced either⁴.

What it means. An energy shock that raises costs but not prices is painful for firms and, for now, less dangerous for inflation. A central bank that waits for evidence before acting is doing its job, not dithering. Nothing here is advice.

As of 21 October, the Democratic Republic of the Congo had reported 9,704 confirmed cases of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, including 4,687 deaths, in data up to 20 October¹. Since the previous update there were 67 new confirmed cases and 41 deaths, in Ituri, North Kivu and Tshopo¹. 1,041 patients are in isolation, and 2,595 people who tested positive have recovered¹.

Where. Ituri remains the centre, with 7,040 cases and 3,271 deaths; North Kivu has 2,146 cases¹. In all, 66 of 178 health zones in eight provinces are affected¹. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says the outbreak is probably larger than reported, because of gaps in data and contact follow-up¹.

Beyond Congo. Kenya has nine confirmed cases, including one death, all linked to a first case imported from Congo; 134 of 135 contacts are in quarantine¹. Nigeria reported its first case on 20 October, a woman who flew in from Uganda; 44 close contacts are being monitored¹. Uganda’s own outbreak was declared over in August¹.

The risk for Europe. ECDC rates the likelihood of infection as low for people living in or travelling to affected areas, and very low for people living in the EU/EEA¹. It also says screening returning travellers “would not be effective” in keeping the virus out, based on the 2013–2016 West African outbreak. Priority should go to giving travellers clear information on symptoms and what to do if they fall ill after arrival¹.

What is missing. There is still no licensed vaccine or specific treatment for Bundibugyo virus¹. WHO guidance proposes using the licensed Ervebo vaccine, made for a different Ebola species, mainly within research protocols; Congo began vaccinating frontline workers with it in August¹.

The constructive reading. The numbers are grim, and they are numbers: counted, published, broken down by health zone. Kenya found 134 of 135 contacts. That is what an outbreak response looks like when it works, one list at a time.

At about 10:30 on Friday a man opened fire from a car in Trappes and La Verrière, two towns in the Yvelines west of Paris, killing one person and seriously wounding several others¹. Among the wounded is a 12-year-old girl, now reported stable at Necker hospital in Paris¹. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said one person had been killed and four injured, and that the suspect had been arrested¹.

What is established. The suspect, 39, was arrested in Coignières and is in custody¹. The national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office (Pnat) has opened an investigation for murder and attempted murders “in relation with a terrorist enterprise”, with the aggravating circumstance that the acts were committed because of the victims’ real or supposed race, ethnicity, nation or religion, and for possession of a category A weapon¹. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez called it “clearly a terrorist crime”¹. According to franceinfo’s sources, the suspect’s flat was found booby-trapped¹. His motives have not been officially stated¹.

What is not. Local officials have offered readings of a possible motive; the minister declined to go beyond calling it “a murderous rampage”¹. This desk will wait for the prosecutor. Speculation in the first hours of an attack has a poor record and a high cost.

Saturday. Hours later Mr Nuñez set out the security plan for Saturday’s protests against the cost of living and in support of school students: 70,000 police and gendarmes across the country, 10,000 more than on 17 October². Raid, GIGN and BRI units will guard public buildings rather than police marches; about twenty Centaure armoured vehicles and some fifteen water cannon will be deployed². Prefects may ban marches where safety cannot be ensured, and routes away from shopping districts are preferred². About 2,400 people were arrested on 17 October and nearly 500 more in the following days².

The constructive reading. France’s institutions were asked two different questions on Friday: how to respond to an attack, and how to protect the right to protest without another night like Limoges. The answer to both is the same boring set of tools: a prosecutor with a clear remit, police inquiries that are counted and published, and rules announced the day before rather than improvised on the night.

Storm Austen, the first autumn storm of the year, crossed north-west France on Friday¹. By Friday midday the grid operator Enedis counted about 288,600 homes without power: 148,500 in Brittany, 88,800 in Pays de la Loire, 49,600 in Normandy and 7,800 in Hauts-de-France¹. Météo-France recorded gusts of 161 km/h at the Pointe du Raz in Finistère¹. Firefighters in the department had intervened 384 times since the start of the episode, and three people in Brittany suffered electric shocks¹. No serious injuries had been reported by midday¹.

The trains and planes. Rail traffic was halted as a precaution on Normandy’s lines and partly in Brittany and the north, with disruption expected on Saturday too; flights at Roissy, Orly and Nantes were delayed or cancelled, and DFDS cancelled Dover–Calais crossings until Saturday morning¹.

The river. Several hundred kilometres east, a quieter number moved, and in the right direction. The Rhine gauge at Kaub has stayed at or above 25 cm all day on Friday, between 25 and 29 cm, for a daily mean so far of 27.3 cm by 16:15². Twenty-five centimetres was the lowest daily reading of the 2010–2020 reference decade, set on 22 October 2018^2,4. Desk arithmetic: the thirty daily means before Friday all sat below it, five of them below zero. Discharge stood at 547 cubic metres a second at 16:00³. This morning’s edition asked whether the day would hold. By 16:15, it had.

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