Eleven refineries and a dialogue

The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy opened a dialogue with the mineral oil industry on Friday about the future of Germany’s refineries¹. Minister Katherina Reiche’s ministry will turn it into a strategy paper for the cabinet; the Länder, the IG BCE union and affected industries are to be brought in^1,2.

The inventory. The release starts with the stock. Germany has eleven refinery sites with a processing capacity of a little over 92 million tonnes of crude a year¹. They cover a large part of the fuel used on roads, in the air and at sea, and make feedstocks for plastics and medicines¹. Keeping that capacity is called “a strategic priority” of industrial policy¹.

The claim. The ministry argues that losing these refineries “cannot be compensated by imports” and would threaten chemical companies or push them abroad¹. It also says the plants must convert step by step from fossil to sustainable feedstocks, which needs “investments in the billions”, and that companies need to be able to plan long-term and assess risks reliably¹.

What is missing. The release does not say who pays for those billions, or what instruments the state might use. It announces a cross-ministry study on what a resilient energy system needs and how resilience can be anchored in planning, scenarios and administration¹. That is a sensible order: count, then study, then decide. It is also slow, at a time when a war in the Gulf is setting fuel prices week by week.

Why the timing makes sense anyway. The release itself names the reason: international conflicts and attacks on energy infrastructure show how much a resilient fuel supply matters¹. Gasoil, the middle distillate behind diesel and heating oil, traded at $1,486.50 a tonne on Friday afternoon³. Refineries are where crude becomes the things you actually buy.

The constructive reading. Germans tend to discover their infrastructure only when it fails. A dialogue that begins with a list of sites, capacities and products, before any plant has closed, is the dull and correct way round. Watch for the study’s terms of reference. That will tell you whether this is a strategy or a press release.