Britons felt worse faster than they spent less

Two British numbers arrived on Friday morning, both about households, and they did not agree.

The feeling. GfK’s consumer confidence index fell eleven points to −24 in October, below every forecast in a Reuters poll¹. It was the biggest month-on-month drop since April 2020, the first lockdown; outside the pandemic, the last fall on this scale came after the June 2016 Brexit vote¹. GfK said no single factor explained it, pointing to rising inflation, the war in the Middle East and the squeeze on budgets. “The speed of this deterioration is alarming,” said Neil Bellamy of GfK¹. The survey asked 2,003 adults between 1 and 14 October¹.

The behaviour. The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September, after a 0.7% rise in August². Over the third quarter they rose 0.7%². Fuel volumes rose on the month “despite fuel prices continuing to rise”, after a fall in August when retailers thought motorists were only partly filling their tanks². Clothing fell, which online retailers put down to a warm September, the joint-fourth warmest on record².

Why they differ. They cover different months, for a start: the ONS figures stop in September, the GfK survey ran in early October. But the gap is also a familiar one in behavioural research. People report their expectations quickly and strongly; they change their routines slowly and partly. A full tank is a habit; a gloomy answer to a pollster costs nothing.

What it does not mean. It does not mean the mood is wrong. Confidence surveys often lead spending. It means a single bad survey is a warning light, not a verdict. The ONS will publish October’s figures on 20 November². That is the month to watch.

For you. When the news tells you everyone feels poorer, check whether anyone is actually buying less. Your own spending is the one series you can read daily. Nothing here is advice.