Six cuts, then a pause: OPEC's November report holds its demand numbers still

OPEC published its November Monthly Oil Market Report on Wednesday. For once, the headline was that nothing changed. The organisation still expects world oil demand to grow by about 0.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2026, to 105.72 mb/d, and by about 2.6 mb/d in 2027, to 108.3 mb/d^1,2. Before this month it had cut its 2026 growth forecast six times this year¹. A pause after six cuts is not optimism. It is a forecaster waiting to see.

The split is the familiar one. OECD demand is seen falling by about 0.2 mb/d this year while the rest of the world adds about 0.4 mb/d; next year OPEC pencils in +0.5 mb/d for the OECD and about +2 mb/d elsewhere^1,2. It also raised its 2026 world growth forecast slightly to 3.1%².

The supply table is more interesting. The OPEC+ countries bound by the cuts raised output by 1.94 mb/d in October, to 32.817 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia adding 1.182 mb/d to reach 9.194 mb/d¹. Their October quota, before compensation, was 36.206 mb/d, so they are producing 3.389 mb/d below what they are allowed¹. Russia alone is 1.281 mb/d under its quota¹. With Hormuz still restricted, that gap looks less like policy than like pipes, ports and insurance.

Prices have already moved. OPEC’s report puts October’s average ICE Brent front-month at $108.34 and its own basket at $112.12². Brent fell below $90 on Tuesday for the first time since late August, more than 20% under its 30 October high of $118, Reuters reports³. Desk arithmetic: $90 is about 17% below October’s $108.34 average.

For you: a monthly report from a producers’ club is part of the dull machinery of the oil market, and it is useful because it is boring. Look past the demand forecast to the quota gap. That gap is barrels that could come back once ships can move freely again, and the report says how many. Nothing here is investment advice.