Evening edition · Friday, 30 October 2026
Every "no" is a subtraction
Israel's final count is out and the party leaders spent Friday saying whom they will not sit with. Add up the refusals and the 120 seats get very small, very fast.
The final results confirmed what the count had been saying all week. Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc 48, and the two Arab-led lists, Ra’am and the Joint List, a record combined 191,2. Likud is the largest party with 27, ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar with 21 and Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad with 122. Sixty-one makes a majority1.
Friday was a day of refusals. “It is forbidden to form a government with them,” Netanyahu posted, about the Arab-led parties1. Avigdor Liberman, on the opposition side, put it as “Neither Bibi nor Tibi”, ruling out both Netanyahu and Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List1, and later said: “We will not sit with supporters of terror”2. Shas leader Aryeh Deri ruled out joining an opposition-bloc government without Likud2. Meanwhile Netanyahu met Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and the opposition held separate talks of its own2.
Desk arithmetic: Netanyahu’s bloc needs 8 more seats; Eisenkot’s needs 13. The only block large enough to close the opposition’s gap on its own is the 19 Arab-led seats, which the loudest voices on both sides have just ruled out. Netanyahu’s route runs through persuading parts of the opposition to cross, and analysts quoted by Al Jazeera say Bennett and Liberman do not currently look willing1.
The cracks are where you would expect. Ra’am has indicated it is open to joining an Eisenkot-led government, analysts say, and the Joint List has left open supporting a minority government from outside1. Eisenkot has set conditions for partners, including recognising Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, without saying whether the Arab-led parties meet them1. Rabbi Dov Landau, a senior ultra-Orthodox figure, said: “We are not in anyone’s bloc”2.
For you, the sensible reading is patience. President Isaac Herzog has asked the parties to come “with an open mind” and to avoid another election3. A refusal on the day after a count is an opening position, not a final one. What counts is the list of recommendations each MK gives the president, and that list is still to come.
What to watch
- The formal handover of official results to President Isaac Herzog next week, after which he must consult every Knesset faction before choosing a candidate3.
- Whether Ra'am, which analysts say is open to joining an Eisenkot-led government, is asked1.
- Which MKs recommend whom: the Times of Israel calls the number of recommendations "the most important test"3.
In coalition politics a red line is just a seat count you have decided not to use.
Sources
- How can Israel break its election deadlock? — Al Jazeera, 30 Oct 2026.
- Israel Election 2026 live updates: Bloc leaders on both sides hold talks — The Jerusalem Post, 30 Oct 2026, last entry 15:52 Israel time (14:52 CET).
- Herzog urges avoiding another election, calls for 'open mind' in coalition talks — The Times of Israel, 28 Oct 2026.
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