0.4% for the area, -0.1% for France, and 2.8% for German prices

The euro area grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate showed on Friday, after 0.6% in the second¹. On the year, output was 1.3% higher, after 1.2%¹. Sharecast notes that the consensus for the annual rate had been 1.1%, and that it is the strongest annual pace since the second quarter of 2025⁴. The estimate rests on 19 member states covering 96% of euro-area output, and Eurostat warns that its sources are incomplete¹.

Four stories in one total. Spain grew 0.6% on the quarter, and has grown in every quarter since the start of 2024^1,5. Germany grew 0.2%, after 0.3%¹. Italy was flat¹. France shrank by 0.1%, its third quarter in a row without growth: -0.2%, 0.0%, -0.1%¹. Ireland, at +5.5%, is the usual outlier; Eurostat itself flags the Irish flash as experimental¹. Desk arithmetic: of the four biggest economies, only one grew faster than the euro-area average, and it was not one of the two largest.

Prices, the same day. At 14:00 Destatis said German consumer prices rose 2.8% on the year in October, down from 3.3% in September, and fell 0.2% on the month². The harmonised rate was also 2.8%². Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 3.1% on the harmonised measure³. Energy was still up 12.2% on the year, but down from 14.9%². Core inflation, excluding food and energy, eased to 2.1% from 2.4%². Services, the line that follows wages, slowed to 2.5%².

How to hold these numbers. Growth a little better than expected and German inflation a little lower is a pleasant Friday, not a turning point. Both are first estimates and both will be revised, in November^1,2. What deserves credit is the machinery: 19 statistical offices, one release time, published methods and a revision calendar printed in advance. For you, the euro-area figure is not out yet: Eurostat’s October inflation flash is scheduled for 4 November⁶. Nothing here is investment advice.