Morning edition · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Podium vs Print: the waiver that is already signed
At Mar-a-Lago the Russia decision was still open. In the executive order, every Graham Act duty is already waived, with no end date.
“A lot of you don't know what my decision is yet, but we'll figure it out, and you'll figure it out.”
President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at Mar-a-Lago; Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 17 October 2026
500%
The order sets a 500% duty on Russian goods and 100% duties on large buyers of Russian oil and gas, then waives all of them, with the waivers in effect until the President or the Secretary of State decides otherwise.
Executive order 'Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026', section 4, 16 October 2026
The podium. The day after he signed the order, the President told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club: “A lot of you don’t know what my decision is yet”1. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the President would use “the 60-day period of time” to work out what sanctions and tariffs would mean for the global and US economy1. On Tuesday morning oil desks were still describing the situation as markets assessing an order that “waived some sanctions and tariffs”4.
The print. The order is short and specific. Section 2 raises the duty on goods from Russia by 500% ad valorem, and by 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude and gas if they make new purchases on or after 18 October2. Section 4 then waives those duties, together with a long list of the Act’s sanctions provisions2. The waivers “shall remain in effect until such time as the President or the Secretary of State” decide that further action is appropriate2. The text gives no 60-day limit. The law firm Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer read it the same way: the waivers “do not have a specified expiration date”, and existing Russia sanctions, including the 2022 ban on importing Russian oil into the US, still apply3.
The gap. The podium describes a decision still to be made. The document describes one already made, which can be reversed at any time and has no deadline. Both can be true, but only one is binding. The 60 days come from a briefing; they are not in the text of the order.
Verdict. Read the order and treat the remarks as commentary on it. If the review becomes an official document, it will have a date on it. Until that happens, buyers of Russian oil face no 100% tariff, and the existing pre-Graham sanctions are unchanged.
What to watch
- Whether a written 60-day review appears anywhere official; the order itself names no review period2.
- The trade representative's monitoring reports on buyers of Russian oil and gas, which section 3 of the order requires2.
- Senator Darline Graham's meeting with the President on the campaign trail this week1.
A decision you can download is still a decision, whatever is said about it on a Saturday.
Sources
- Trump will take up to 60 days to weigh Russia sanctions, Rubio says — The Irish Times (Reuters), 18 Oct 2026.
- Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 — The White House, 16 Oct 2026.
- Trump administration waives new Russia sanctions and tariffs under Graham Act — Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, 19 Oct 2026.
- Oil Price Today (October 20): Crude oil nears $110 again as fresh attacks outweigh easing Russian sanctions — The Economic Times, 20 Oct 2026.
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