Asia did not buy the Nasdaq bounce

Wall Street had a better Monday than anyone else. The S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 7,690.73 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.11% to 26,430.89, while the Dow slipped 0.07% to 51,966.03². The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 1.6%, ending an eight-day losing run². Newsquawk’s overnight note pointed out what the headline hid: breadth “was poor outside of AI names”¹.

Asia read the narrow rally as narrow. By early Tuesday trade, the Nikkei 225 was down 1.33% and the Kospi down 3.51%, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index 0.6% lower². SK Hynix fell 5.56% and SoftBank Group 5.22%². Newsquawk put the Kospi’s fall in the first half of October at more than 17%, the steepest among major markets¹. Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointed 0.6% lower at the time of that note (03:54 Berlin)¹.

Europe had already closed in the red before New York’s bounce. The DAX ended Monday down 1.18% at 25,319.78, the CAC 40 down 1.11% at 7,868.06 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 1.55%³. Bonds did the more careful work. France’s ten-year yield rose 8.6 basis points to 4.940%; Germany’s rose 3.6 to 3.456%³. Desk arithmetic: that leaves the OAT–Bund gap at about 148 basis points, up from about 145 in Monday’s evening edition. The US ten-year rose 4 basis points to 5.138% at the European close snapshot³.

Today brings receipts rather than moods. Destatis publishes German producer prices for September at 08:00; the Dow Jones consensus expects +1.8% on the month and +6.3% on the year, after +4.6% in August⁴. In Paris the National Assembly votes on the revenue part of the budget bill, with the full vote set for 17 November³. A factory-gate index and a roll call will tell you more than a futures screen at dawn.

Nothing here is advice; it is a reading of prices and calendars that were public when it was written.