Friday at €161.74: the wind turned up as promised, and the auction kept the discount

This morning we told you the wind would arrive on Thursday, mostly after dark, and that the price had already been set on that expectation. By mid-afternoon the regulator’s meters had their say. Between midnight and 15:00, onshore and offshore wind together produced about 199.5 GWh, against about 197.5 GWh forecast for the same hours². Desk arithmetic: that is about 1% more than promised. In fifteen hours, Thursday’s wind had already produced more than the whole of Wednesday, when SMARD records about 147.1 GWh².

The mix was not quite as drawn. Onshore turbines delivered about 108.6 GWh, roughly 11% less than forecast, while offshore turbines delivered about 90.9 GWh, roughly 21% more². Desk arithmetic, both. The total held because the sea made up what the land missed. That is how a portfolio is meant to work, and it is a dull, reassuring thing to see in a grid.

Friday clears lower again. The day-ahead auction held on Thursday for delivery on Friday 13 November settled at an average of €161.74 per megawatt hour for Germany and Luxembourg¹. Thursday’s delivery day averaged €199.05; Tuesday’s set a record at €351.48¹. Desk arithmetic: Friday is €37.31, or about 19%, below Thursday, and about 54% below Tuesday. It is the lowest delivery day since Tuesday 27 October, when the average was €155.12¹.

A day with a dip in the middle. Friday’s shape is different from Thursday’s. The cheapest hour is 12:00, at €90.51; the four hours from 10:00 average about €99.64¹. The dearest is 17:00, at €226.20, and the four hours from 16:00 average about €217.08¹. The night is in between: the six hours from midnight average about €140.57¹. Desk arithmetic, all three averages. Teatime is still the hour the country pays for, when people come home, the lights go on and the sun has gone.

What we do not yet know. We cannot tell you why Friday’s midday is cheap. When we checked at 16:31 CET, SMARD had not yet published its wind and solar forecast for Friday². It would be easy to say “the wind again” or “a bit of sun”. It would also be a guess, and this desk does not print guesses as explanations. The forecast will be there by morning, and so will our answer.

Gas is the counterweight. Not everything pulls the same way. The Dutch TTF front-month gas contract, Europe’s benchmark, rose for a third session on Thursday, climbing 2% to €88.42 per megawatt hour in early trading; Britain’s NBP rose 1.7% to 219.00 pence per therm³. Desk arithmetic: Friday’s four teatime hours cost more than twice its four lunchtime hours. How much of that gap is gas, the auction does not say. The same pressure shows across the Channel: Britain’s statistics office said on Thursday that wholesale electricity prices there were about double the level of a year ago⁴.

Why this is worth your attention. From 2 to 8 November every delivery day cost more than €240, and on Tuesday the average set a record¹. The fall since Tuesday is not a policy, a speech or a breakthrough. It is a weather forecast, published by a regulator, priced by an exchange and then checked against meters, in public, the same day. The machinery is unglamorous. It is also what lets you see, rather than be told, whether the cheap day was real. Today it was.

For you. On a dynamic tariff, Friday’s best window is the middle of the day: from 10:00 to 14:00, every hour is below €115¹. That is when the washing machine, the dishwasher and the car will cost least. Avoid 16:00 to 20:00 if you can, when every hour is above €200¹. On a fixed tariff, nothing changes this week; your supplier bought months ago. Nothing here is investment advice.