Bruna on Tuesday, Charles on Wednesday: eight red districts, closed schools, and a minister asking you to stay home

Lisbon woke up wet. Between midnight and 06:00 local time on Tuesday the city’s fire brigade logged 130 weather-related call-outs, most of them flooded homes and streets, none serious; from 06:30 the Segunda Circular ring road was flooded, with pictures of submerged cars¹. That was Storm Bruna, which had already battered Madeira at the weekend⁴.

The next one has a name too. A secondary low on Bruna’s southern flank, named Charles by Spain’s weather service, is expected to deepen quickly on Tuesday and Wednesday⁴. Portugal’s weather institute, IPMA, has put eight districts, Faro, Setúbal, Beja, Évora, Santarém, Lisbon, Leiria and Portalegre, under red wind warnings for Wednesday, the highest of three levels, with gusts up to 120 km/h and up to 140 km/h in the most exposed places³. Orange warnings for persistent heavy rain cover 18 districts, and waves of five to seven metres are expected off Setúbal, Lisbon and Beja³.

What deserves your attention is the paperwork. The government declared a “situação de alerta” for 11 November across the mainland on Tuesday morning, a day in advance². Schools and non-essential public services close, outdoor activities are suspended, parks, forests and gardens are off limits, and loose structures must be secured². Interior minister Luís Neves asked people to stay home where possible and asked employers to be understanding, reminding them of the legal right to family-care leave².

He also gave the reason plainly: during Storm Kristin in January, several deaths were linked to people trying to protect property². An IPMA forecaster would not rule out “a situation similar to Storm Kristin”¹.

So the institution is doing the dull thing early: closing schools on a forecast, not on a casualty count. If it turns out milder, someone will call it an overreaction. That is the right complaint to have.