COP31 opens in Antalya: a third of the economy on the wire, and nobody promising a new target

Today the talking starts. Delegations from nearly 200 countries gather on Türkiye’s Mediterranean coast for two weeks of climate negotiations¹. The opening plenary is set for 10:00 Antalya time, which is 08:00 in Berlin⁴. The mood music arrived first, and it is not cheerful: war-driven fears over energy security, fast-rising power demand from AI, and the world’s largest historic emitter shunning climate cooperation for the second year running¹.

The host’s yardstick. Türkiye has built the summit around one goal: electrify more than a third of the global economy by 2035, up from around a fifth today, and it is asking countries to sign a pledge in support¹. The criticism is just as plain. The pledge does not require the extra electricity to be low-carbon, which has already started an argument over whether electrification on its own counts as climate progress¹. Türkiye will also ask governments and businesses to sign principles for developing and deploying AI sustainably¹.

The headwinds, named. Reuters reports that the Iran war has nations scrambling for oil cargoes and firing up coal plants, and that South Korea, India, Thailand and others have leaned harder on coal¹. “It’s hard to be optimistic,” said John Holdren of Harvard¹. Last year’s COP president, the Brazilian diplomat André Corrêa do Lago, offered the other reading: “The war has strengthened the case for accelerating the energy transition”¹.

The honest expectation. Singapore’s environment minister, Grace Fu, said she was “not expecting a major upgrade in mitigation targets”. She added that the Paris Agreement already contains “enough to work on”, and that adaptation and side agreements offer room for progress². Coming from a negotiator, that is not defeatism. It is a job description.

Today’s theme. Day one is Food, Agriculture and Health: food security, irrigation and water efficiency, and climate and health³. Energy and Transport, the home ground of the electrification pledge, follows on Tuesday³.

For you. Skip the opening speeches. The business lobby asked for one thing, in the words of the International Chamber of Commerce’s John Denton: clear policy signals that “turn adaptation needs into bankable projects”¹. That is the right test. A pledge you can invest against is worth more than a target you can applaud.