Aigner today, 1,260 electors in January, and a majority of about fifty

The search for Germany’s next head of state reached its formal step on Sunday evening. At an informal dinner of the CDU presidium in Berlin, party leader and chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would propose Ilse Aigner, the president of the Bavarian state parliament, to the party’s committees on Monday, according to party sources quoted by tagesschau¹. Aigner, 61, is to present herself this morning to the CDU presidium and federal executive, after which she and Merz are to face the press, around 13:00 according to the FAZ^2,4. Both then travel to Munich for the ceremony marking the 20th anniversary of the main synagogue¹.

She would be the first woman and the first CSU politician in the office¹. CSU leader Markus Söder first floated her name in April, and the CSU backed her clearly at its party conference in October³. The SPD leadership has signalled support, and Merz wants to bring in the Greens, who have also signalled sympathy; his aim, Handelsblatt reports, is to present her as a “candidate of the centre”³.

The room that decides. The Federal Convention meets on 30 January to elect Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s successor². It is made up of the 630 members of the Bundestag and the same number of delegates from the states³. Desk arithmetic: that is 1,260 electors. Union and SPD hold a majority there of about 50 votes, according to Handelsblatt³. That is a working majority, not a landslide, which is why the Greens’ formal position still matters.

The criticism was about process. Merz had declined to confirm the choice before speaking to his committees, which drew the charge, even inside his party, that the procedure had slipped away from him^1,2. That is a fair complaint about timing, and it is now largely answered by the timetable: committees first, press second, convention last.

For you, the useful frame is the dull one. A federal president has few powers and a great deal of signing to do. The office works when the person in it is widely accepted before they take it. A long, slightly clumsy route to a broad candidate is better than a quick route to a narrow one.