Canola meal, peas, lobster and crab: Ottawa and Beijing buy two more years of predictability

Canada and China have agreed a two-year extension, to the end of 2028, of the favourable market access Canadian canola meal, peas, lobsters and crab have had under their Preliminary Joint Arrangement, Global Affairs Canada said on Wednesday¹. In return, Canada extends to the end of 2028 its remission measures for certain Chinese steel and aluminium products not made in Canada¹. The deal was struck at the Joint Economic and Trade Commission in Beijing, co-led by trade minister Maninder Sidhu and China’s commerce minister Wang Wentao, the first time the commission has met at ministerial level¹. Lianhe Zaobao notes the announcement came the day after the midterm elections in the United States².

The arrangement dates from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing in January, when China also restored access for Canadian beef¹. Under it, Canada agreed in January to let up to 49,000 Chinese-made electric vehicles in at a low tariff rate, Zaobao reports². Sidhu says the arrangement supports sectors that sustain “more than 600,000 jobs in Canada”¹.

The numbers explain the patience. China was Canada’s second-largest single-country merchandise trading partner in 2025, with $125.7 billion of two-way trade: $35.0 billion of Canadian exports and $90.6 billion of imports, by the Canadian government’s count¹. Desk arithmetic: imports were about 2.6 times exports, a gap of $55.6 billion. Exports grew 31.4% to $21.5 billion in the first half of this year¹. Ottawa’s target is a 50% rise in exports to China by 2030¹.

The useful word in the release is “predictability”¹. A farmer choosing what to plant next spring, or a lobster exporter signing freight for 2027, cannot price a tariff that may return in a few months. Two years of known terms is a small thing at a podium and a large thing in a spreadsheet. Wang, in China’s own statement, said both sides want to keep “shortening the list of problems” and “lengthening the list of cooperation”, as quoted by Zaobao (desk translation)².

For you, the lesson is about where trade policy actually lives in 2026: not in sweeping speeches but in dated, renewable, product-by-product arrangements. They are dull, and they are what lets ships get booked.