225, 305, 360: the flu came early, and the jab fits

Three weeks of numbers from Ontario tell the story in a row: 225 positive flu tests, then 305, then 360 in the week from 18 to 24 October, according to Public Health Ontario figures reported on Tuesday¹. The province’s season began in early September, which is weeks before anyone’s planning calendar expects it.

The useful part is the second number. Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory has tested 116 circulating samples against this year’s vaccine, and the infectious-diseases specialist Isaac Bogoch called the result “a really good match”¹. A good match does not mean nobody catches flu. It means the jab you get this week is aimed at the virus actually going round, which is not a given every year.

The United States is seeing the same early start. The CDC estimates flu cases are likely rising in 44 states, and New York’s health department reported a 19% weekly rise in mid-October, with flu hospitalisations up from 199 to 233². Experts are watching a G155E mutation in an H1N1 strain as one possible reason for the early start, though it is too soon to say for sure². New York’s health commissioner also said fewer residents had been vaccinated than a year earlier, and said people “just need to be reminded”².

So the problem is not the science. It is getting people to the clinic. Ontario opened free shots to everyone on 26 October, Toronto is running a combined flu, Covid and RSV clinic on Thursday, and Illinois health officials have tried horror-film memes to get people booked^1,2. None of that makes headlines. All of it counts.

If your doctor or national guidance says you should have the jab, book it now. Protection takes a little while to build, and in an early season that wait matters more than usual.