Evening edition · Monday, 26 October 2026
Two committees, two days apart, and France gets a quieter week
The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, the ECB decides on Thursday. Both have held since September. Moody's kept France at Aa3, and the French ten-year slipped below 5%.
The Federal Reserve’s committee meets on 27 and 28 October1. The ECB’s Governing Council announces its decision on Thursday, 29 October. Both arrive on hold: the Fed’s upper limit has been 4.00% since September, the ECB’s deposit rate 2.50% since September2.
Step chart since January 2025 of the Fed funds target upper limit and the ECB deposit rate. The Fed's upper limit falls from 4.50% to 3.75% between September and December 2025, then rises to 4.00% in September 2026. The ECB deposit rate falls from 3.00% to 2.00% by June 2025, rises to 2.25% in June 2026 and to 2.50% in September 2026. Both are unchanged since September; the latest values, for 26 October 2026, are 4.00% and 2.50%. The Fed meets on 27–28 October and the ECB decides on 29 October.
Source Federal Reserve Board (DFEDTARU) and European Central Bank (ECBDFR), both via FRED, St. Louis Fed. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) via FRED. Public domain. European Central Bank deposit facility rate (ECBDFR) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. © European Central Bank; reuse permitted with source acknowledgement.
Data (CSV) · SVG · PNG
Latest values as a table
| Date | Fed funds, upper limit | ECB deposit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 2026-10-22 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 2026-10-23 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 2026-10-24 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 2026-10-26 | 4 | 2.5 |
The expectation. Previews broadly expect the ECB to hold at 2.50%; one market-pricing tracker put the chance of an October rise at about 3%, and Morgan Stanley sees December, when new staff projections arrive, as the “natural moment” for the next move3. A forecast is not a decision. The chart shows only what was decided.
The relief. Moody’s has kept France at Aa3, citing a diversified economy and strong public institutions despite rising debt and a fragmented parliament4. The French ten-year yield fell below 5% on Monday morning4. That is the most useful thing a rating agency can say about a country: the institutions still count.
Nothing here is investment advice.
What to watch
A committee that holds is not doing nothing. It is letting the last decision reach the invoices before writing the next one.
Sources
- Meeting calendars and information: 2026 FOMC meetings — Federal Reserve Board, retrieved 26 Oct 2026.
- Federal funds target range upper limit (DFEDTARU) and ECB deposit facility rate (ECBDFR) — FRED, St. Louis Fed, retrieved 26 Oct 2026.
- ECB set to hold at 2.50% as Morgan Stanley sees December as natural moment for next hike — investingLive, Oct 2026.
- MÄRKTE EUROPA/Moody's stützt - Ibex und PSI nach Brasilien-Wahl unter Druck — Dow Jones via finanznachrichten.de, 26 Oct 2026, 10:39.
Every figure in this piece traces to a source above or to the desk’s own arithmetic on those sources, marked as such. Quotations are short and attributed. Spot an error? Write to the desk; corrections are logged on the method page.
Commentary for information only. Not investment, legal, tax, medical or political advice. Not an offer or solicitation. Analysis may be incomplete or wrong. Charts show published public data, not a trading feed; binding numbers live with the institutions that publish them.