The Annex: what the Russia waiver actually waives

The annex this morning is the order itself, published by the White House on 16 October¹. It is shorter than the commentary about it, and more precise.

Section 2 sets the duties. Goods from Russia: duty raised by 500% ad valorem. Goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas, if they knowingly make new purchases on or after 18 October: plus 100%. Goods from the five largest facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion: plus 100%¹.

Section 4 switches them off. Under section 115 of the act, the president waives “any duties” under sections 112 and 113, and the sanctions in a long list of other sections, having certified to Congress that the waiver is in the national interest¹. The waivers “remain in effect until” the president or the secretary of state decides that further action is appropriate¹. There is no end date. The waiver came two days before the law’s implementation deadline³.

What survives. “For the avoidance of doubt”, nothing in the order affects sanctions under the executive orders behind the national emergency on Russia, as continued on 24 March 2026¹. The older architecture stands; the new floor was built and not walked on. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact².

What it sits next to. A diesel deal: Russian exports to the United States and others starting at about 2.3 million barrels this month and rising to about 7.6 million barrels a month, according to Trump’s announcement as reported by Reuters². It follows a temporary waiver of sanctions on Russian diesel exports through April 2027³. On Sunday the president wrote that he could sign the sanctions “later, or any time that I want!”⁴. Zelenskyy called the waiver “wrong”³.

The reading. A law with a waiver clause is still a law. The duties exist on paper, the monitoring duty in section 3 exists, and section 5 names which department would pull which lever¹. That is leverage stored, not leverage spent. Whether it is ever spent is a political question. Where it sits, and who holds the switch, is now a matter of public record, which is more than most podium lines leave behind.