A blackout week belongs to the prints

The Federal Reserve has entered its communications blackout ahead of its 28 October decision¹. For a week the most-quoted committee in the world says nothing in public, and that is a feature, not a gap. When the speakers go quiet, the data has the floor.

There is plenty of it. UK inflation for September arrives on Wednesday, after 3.1% in August; markets had priced a 95% chance that the Bank of England raises rates on 5 November, CMC Markets wrote on Friday². The People’s Bank of China sets its lending rates on Tuesday, euro-area consumer confidence comes on Thursday, and on Friday the euro-area purchasing managers’ surveys and Japan’s September inflation². CMC also notes that markets expect the Fed itself to raise rates sooner than the Bank of England, after hotter-than-expected September consumer and producer prices in the United States².

Beijing is the quiet exception. Economists largely expect the People’s Bank to hold its benchmark lending rates through the rest of the year and leave the work to fiscal measures, such as the 550 billion yuan of unused debt quota passed to local governments in early October³.

Currencies are waiting too. The yen barely moved this morning at 157.89 per dollar, and the offshore yuan held at 6.6839¹.

The desk’s view is old-fashioned. A committee that talks every day trains markets to trade adjectives. A blackout sends everyone back to the invoice: what prices actually did last month, measured by statisticians who do not give interviews. You can do the same this week. Skip the previews. Read the releases.