Nine ships in 24 days, 317 in six months, and a $40 billion counter-drone bill

Between 5 and 28 October, nine merchant vessels were struck or caught up in drone-linked incidents off Bulgaria and Romania, five near Bulgaria and four near Romania, according to a timeline compiled by the Bulgarian agency BGNES². Several sank, and crew died or are missing². NATO said in October that it would send maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to the area¹. The strikes continued anyway. On 28 October the Liberian-flagged container ship Contship Jet, sailing from Haifa to Constanța with 421 containers, was hit by three maritime drones about 17 nautical miles east of Cape Kaliakra and sank. All 18 crew were rescued and taken to Varna².

The wider numbers are worse. Russia and Ukraine hit 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov between May and October, against 74 in the previous half-year, according to Ambrey Analytics¹. In October, Ambrey counted 38 Russian strikes on ships and 5 Ukrainian ones¹. Desk arithmetic: 317 is about 4.3 times 74. Trade is paying for it. Ukraine’s grain exports through its ports fell to 0.81 million tonnes in September, from 2.1 million a year earlier¹.

Military analysts told Reuters they had little doubt the attacks near Romania and Bulgaria were Russian. Moscow denies targeting Ukraine’s neighbours¹. What stands out is how carefully the two NATO governments handle attribution. Bucharest calls the strikes on civilian ships “systematic” but has not attributed individual attacks, citing the need for forensic evidence. Sofia says some attacks appear to benefit Russia but has not blamed it¹. That can look timid. In fact it is what makes a later case hold up. Romania’s defence ministry has documented at least six incursion episodes involving nine aerial targets between 14 and 31 October².

The response is mostly about procurement, not rhetoric. A NATO official said the alliance had already committed to invest more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years¹. A senior Romanian official pointed to an urgent need for surface-to-air interceptors and radars¹. Turkey, which controls the straits, is waiting for Moscow and Kyiv to respond to its proposal for a narrow maritime ceasefire¹.

If you ship through Constanța, or insure cargo that does, the useful information is in the incident log: coordinates, distance from shore, cargo manifests. Leave the communiqués aside. Read the log.