Podium vs Print: the strait is open, the diesel is not

The podium. On Monday Iran formally restated that it is ready to open the Strait of Hormuz, while its first vice-president, Mohammad Reza Aref, said Tehran had “keine andere Wahl”, no other choice, than to enforce control over it, in HeizOel24’s German rendering¹. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Fox News that oil exports through the strait had recovered to about 80% of pre-war levels, while shipments of refined products remained impaired¹.

The print. The market’s own figures tell a narrower story. HeizOel24 reports that diesel in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub cost about two-thirds more than crude on Friday¹. Gasoil, the exchange basis for both diesel and heating oil, closed Monday about 2.5% above Friday while Brent closed slightly lower, and gasoil for November delivery cost more than 3% more than December¹. A drone strike forced Russia’s Ryazan refinery to shut its main distillation unit; the plant makes about 3.8 million tonnes of diesel a year, according to Reuters as cited by HeizOel24¹.

The gap. Both statements can be accurate. Crude can flow at four-fifths of normal while the products made from it stay short, because refineries and tankers are a separate bottleneck. Germany’s producer prices already show it: light heating oil was 91.8% dearer in September than a year earlier, motor fuels 48.6%³.

Verdict. Read the strait statements as news about crude. Read the gasoil curve as news about your tank. Until near-dated gasoil stops costing more than later gasoil, the shortage is current¹.